Efe Nail Saltık 
Investors in the crypto market placed bets totaling $2.4 million on the decision regarding spot Ether ETFs. Only 19% of these bets forecast a positive outcome by the May deadline set by the US SEC.
Bets are being placed on whether the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) before May 31. Investors on the Polygon-based crypto gambling platform, Polymarket, are betting on whether spot Ether ETF applications will be approved or rejected by the end of May.
So far, over $2.4 million has been bet, and approximately 81% of participants expressed their pessimism about the chances of spot Ether ETF approval before the deadline.
Crypto traders are buying shares that reflect their predictions about the outcome. The value of these shares reflects the likelihood of the bet and fluctuates similarly to the crypto market. Currently, a Yes share is worth $0.19, while a No share is worth $0.81, indicating that fewer traders believe that spot ETH ETFs will be approved by the end of May.
The top trader betting on Yes has approximately $84,000 worth of shares, while the top No owner has about $127,000 worth of No shares.
If the SEC approves a spot Ether ETF before the May 31 deadline, the betting market will resolve, and Yes shareholders will be allowed to cash in their profits. Conversely, if approval is not received before the deadline, the opposite will be true.
Crypto investors are not betting on ETF approval outcomes for the first time. On January 5, Polymarket faced criticism from Reddit users for allowing bets on whether spot Bitcoin ETFs would be approved by the SEC before January 15. Some Reddit users criticized this practice as a foolish one, akin to risking large sums for a small reward, while others joked about betting on their children’s college funds.
Bets on ETF outcomes have exceeded $12 million in the prediction market overall. Despite a lack of interaction with applicants by the SEC, investment management firm Grayscale continues to be confident of a positive decision for spot Ether ETFs by May, as Grayscale’s chief legal officer Craig Salm stated on March 25.
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