Efe Nail Saltık 
Bitcoin‘s volatility recently hovered within 6% of record low levels, presenting a unique scenario for the cryptocurrency market. Before the sharp price decline on June 7, Bitcoin’s volatility over the previous 15 days was in “the bottom 6% of occurrences” in its history.
Bitcoin’s Historic Low Volatility
From May 24 to June 7, Bitcoin’s price moved so little that it approached historic lows for 15-day periods. According to Rapha Zagury, Chief Investment Officer at Swan Bitcoin, this period represented one of the least volatile in Bitcoin’s history. Zagury noted in a June 7 post on X that the 15-day rolling volatility was at 23%, close to the lower historical levels.
Market Reaction
During this low volatility period, Bitcoin traded within a narrow 7% range, fluctuating between $66,936 and $71,656. However, on June 7, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply by 3.33% to $69,264. This decline followed the release of the United States Employment Situation Summary Report, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. This report influenced market expectations about potential inflation rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on June 11.
Future Projections Based on Past Performance
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,246. Despite the recent volatility, historical data suggests interesting trends for Bitcoin’s price movements following similar low-volatility periods. Zagury highlighted that over the next 30 days after such low volatility periods, Bitcoin’s average return stood at 20.95%. The minimum return in these periods was a further decline of 32.06%, while the maximum return reached an impressive 218.40%.
When examining the outcomes over 365 days following low-volatility periods, the returns are even more significant. The minimum return was 55.59%, while the average return soared to 820.82%.
Learning from History
While historical performance is not a guarantee of future results, Zagury emphasized the value of learning from the past. For investors, these patterns provide a valuable perspective on potential price movements and market behavior following periods of low volatility.
Bitcoin’s recent low volatility period is noteworthy for investors and analysts alike. As the market reacts to economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions, understanding past trends can offer insights into potential future movements. Stay informed and consider historical data as part of your investment strategy.
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