Data Examined by Analysts Points to an Rise in Bitcoin

An analyst notes that the current positioning of bitcoin options mirrors patterns observed during previous halvings, showing a bullish bias in the market. Specifically, for the end-of-June 2024 expiry, the pricing of calls stands notably higher compared to puts.

A put-call ratio below one signals a bullish sentiment, indicating that call volume surpasses put volume. Notably, the bitcoin put-call skew remains negative as of May and beyond, implying relatively higher costs for calls, indicative of bullish sentiment.

Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers confirmed this trend, highlighting that the market continues to value calls more than puts for the June 2024 period. Despite recent declines in bitcoin’s price, Strijers emphasized that the options landscape remains consistent with previous halvings, suggesting that the positive impact on prices may require some time to materialize.

Strijers underscored that despite short-term fluctuations, the market sentiment has not turned bearish, emphasizing bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, which may exert temporary downward pressure.

Regarding the concentrated selling of May-expiry calls at an $80,000 strike price, QCP Capital analysts noted this activity. Strijers attributed this to a reduction in basis yield from nearly 20% annualized to 10%, impacting traders holding high strike price calls. Consequently, some investors might have shifted towards selling out-of-the-money calls for premium income, contributing to a decrease in implied volatility levels.

While acknowledging a decrease in bitcoin’s trading range dampening earlier excitement in the derivatives market, Strijers highlighted that the basis yield remains positive and relatively high.

However, Bitfinex analysts suggest a potential shift in sentiment as investors start selling high strike price calls, possibly influenced by recent declines in large-cap equities like Meta and Tesla. This reassessment in the options market may reflect participants adjusting their expectations and taking profits or cutting losses ahead of the summer.

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