Ahmet Bedirhan Arvas 
How Onchain Interprets Bitcoin ETF! Bitcoin is approaching, and the winds are picking up. The uncertainty of the expected spot ETF decision is rising, causing price fluctuations. So, two possible scenarios emerge, each requiring a different strategy. Are you ready to weather the storm?
Scenario 1: Excitement Takes Flight – Be Ready for Turbulence
Imagine Bitcoin soaring towards $48.5k, fueled by the excitement of a potential ETF approval. While your inner HODLer rejoices, be cautious. Short-term investor activity, as seen in the surging 1-day to 1-week holding ratio, depicts a market reaching its peak. This, dear adventurer, often comes just before a sudden downturn.
Why? Look again at the average unit price chart. $48.5k aligns with the breaking point for 2-3 year holders, the sole red group at present. Their key price levels serve as robust resistance, potentially triggering a correction when surpassed.
Strategy: If the bull fervor takes over, consider taking profits. Remember, securing gains is an art, not betrayal. Increase your cash allocation to soften potential future volatility. Be prepared for a potential decline towards $34k, the average price for 1-week to 3-month and 18-month to 2-year holders. This support level may create buying pressure and offer a re-entry point if you wish to trade again.
Scenario 2: Reality Bites – Seeking Shelter
A 20-30% correction in Bitcoin’s tumultuous journey wouldn’t be new. The anticipated ETF news could trigger such a downturn, but remember, corrections provide buying opportunities.
Focus on the average unit price chart once more. $34k and $30k serve as potential support areas, attracting buying interest from 1-week to 3-month and 3-12 month holders, respectively. These levels represent average cost bases where selling pressure wanes, and buying becomes appealing.
Strategy: Don’t panic if Bitcoin drops. Stay calm and assess the situation. If prices fall towards $34k or $30k, consider using the correction as an opportunity to gradually accumulate, lowering your cost base. However, never invest more than you can afford, and always prioritize risk management.
The upcoming news is a double-edged sword. It may propel Bitcoin but could be followed by a sharp descent. Alternatively, it might trigger a correction, presenting a buying opportunity. Regardless of the outcome, be prepared for volatility. Increase your cash allocation, prioritize risk management, and be ready to adapt your strategy based on the unfolding scenario. Remember, navigating market storms often requires agility and a calm demeanor. Take a deep breath, trust your research, and confidently manage the impending Bitcoin turbulence.