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According to an analysis by investment bank TD Cowen, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not approve spot Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024.
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The analysis states that the SEC is determined on this issue for political reasons. The research suggests that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will be cautious about Ethereum ETFs, taking into account the reaction of progressive Democrats. In particular, it is emphasized that Gensler is not expected to make a positive decision for Ethereum ETFs, given the discomfort caused by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.
According to TD Cowen’s report, Gensler needs the support of progressive politicians in the 2024 election year. Analysts say Gensler needs this support to move to a higher-level position such as Treasury Secretary if President Biden is re-elected.
Reminding that Gensler’s term at the SEC ends in June 2026, TD Cowen analysts estimate that Ethereum ETFs could be approved in late 2025 or early 2026. Analysts say Gensler does not want to get into an unnecessary conflict for now and wants to observe the performance of the newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. Therefore, it is concluded that a hasty decision is not expected on Ethereum ETFs.